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【双语社评】美民主党夺回众院,几家欢乐几家愁

2018-11-08 17:25     军事     来自:环球时报GlobalTimes

环球时报GlobalTimes

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The Democratic Party recaptured control of the House of Representatives that it lost eight years ago, giving it more leverage to challenge Donald Trump's presidency. The Republican Party retained its control of the Senate, but it will be difficult for Trump's policies to break through. The election result sent a signal that Trump's governance is facing more controversies and the American voters wish to restrain him.

美国民主党星期二夺回失去了8年的众议院控制权,获得了挑战特朗普总统特立独行执政风格的权力。虽然共和党仍在参议院保持多数,但特朗普从此将再难有重大政策的突破性建树。这一选举结果发出的是特朗普执政路线受到的争议加剧、美国选民希望对他进行制约的信号。


But Tuesday's election result doesn't amount to a turning point for Trump. He still has the opportunity to mobilize his supporters and bring Republicans together to contest a Democratic candidate in the 2020 presidential election. Obama won the re-election in 2012 despite the Democratic Party losing control of the House in 2010. 

但星期二的选举不意味着特朗普政治命运的转折点,他将有机会动员自己的支持者,团结共和党人,在接下来2020年总统大选中与民主党候选人对决,争取连任。奥巴马就是在民主党2010年输了众议院之后于2012年胜选连任美国总统的。


Now Trump faces two options: adjust or strengthen his style. The first option can help him win more voters in the middle ground for the 2020 presidential elections. The second will consolidate his main support and pass the blame onto the Democratic Party for a fiercer partisan struggle. He is more likely to choose the second.

在共和党输掉众议院的情况下,特朗普面临两个选择:做调整或进一步强化自己的风格。前者有利于在两年后的总统大选中争取中间选民的支持,后者则有利于巩固自己的基本盘,将两党对抗致国会分裂以及更严重政治扯皮的责任推给民主党,依照特朗普的性格,他更有可能选择后一做法。


The biggest suspense will be whether the Democratic Party will start impeachment against Trump, using its control of the House. Impeachment needs the support of more than two-thirds of senators to work. Therefore, it has almost no chance of success. Yet the process may still appeal to Democrats as it will embarrass the president and throttle his reelection plan. But it will depend on the result of the investigation into the Russiagate scandal. 

美国下一步政治斗争的焦点将是国内领域,最大的悬念是民主党会不会利用众院简单多数发起对特朗普总统的弹劾程序。由于弹劾总统需参院2/3以上多数的支持,弹劾几乎无可能成功,但弹劾过程对民主党或有吸引力,因为它能让总统很难堪,打乱他的竞选连任计划。但这一切还要取决于独立检察官对“通俄门”调查的进展。


Trump will have to face new obstacles on international issues that have no bipartisan consensus such as the Korean Peninsula. Yet he can still do what he wants against pressure given the House's limits of authority on foreign affairs. What endured the least impact from the midterm results was the China-US relationship as the tough line on China is among topics on which Democrats and Republics can agree. Losing the House will hardly have any direct bearing on Trump's China policy. 

在两党有争议的国际事项中,特朗普的政策将面临新的阻力,比如朝鲜半岛问题。当然,众院的外交权有限,特朗普想干的事顶着压力还是能干下去的。中美关系受中期选举结果影响的可能性看上去最小。原因在于对华强硬是美国两党态度重合率最高的议题之一,失去众院不会对特朗普的对华政策产生直接影响。 


What's underlying deteriorating China-US ties is the US mentality of refusing to accept China's rise. Beijing and Washington have to move together to reduce overall tension in bilateral ties. If the US intends to change its foreign relations, Europe will be the first. The Trump administration has significantly crippled transatlantic solidarity and created serious conflicts with Europe. European elites will be more than happy to see the midterm results. So will be Japan, South Korea and Australia. They will pin hopes on a milder attitude from Trump under constraints.

中美关系变糟有美国不接受中国崛起大的心理背景。现在的问题是要降低中美关系的整体紧张度有困难,这也是北京和华盛顿需共同着力推动变化的方向。如果美国改善对外关系,最早出现调整的大概会是欧洲方向。特朗普政府极大削弱了大西洋两岸的团结,伤了不少感情。面对美中期选举结果,最暗自高兴的应该是欧洲的政治精英们。日本、韩国及澳大利亚也会窃喜,它们会寄希望于受到打击和限制的特朗普对自己的亚太盟友变得更加温和。


It's hard to conclude that global populism will be thereby disappointed. After all, the Republicans still control the Senate and Trump is able to continue promoting America First, just with technical adjustments. High uncertainty lingers in international relations.

这能看成是全球民粹主义受到的一次打击吗?这很难说,美国中期选举与全球化之间的关系还很不明朗。共和党仍掌握着参议院,特朗普受了挫折,但他的战线依然强大,他仍有资本“做自己”,只做些技术性调整继续推销自己“美国优先”的理念。未来国际关系仍有高度不确定性。


China doesn't need to be deluded by a perceived change in US politics. We should just go about our own business. 

中国人无需对美国政坛的变化抱什么幻想,我们的利益不可能指望因为美国选民的一个做法而得到保护。中国做好自己的事情,这比什么都牢靠。


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