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【双语社评】中美两国终将走向“第3选择”

2018-10-10 16:08     财经     来自:环球时报GlobalTimes
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Nauruan President Baron Waqa was tough toward China at the end of the Pacific Islands Forum earlier this week. He accused China of "bullying" other nations and even threatened to take it to the United Nations. Such a deliberate provocation against China has made headlines in Western media. This is perhaps the biggest limelight the president of a nation of just 11,000 people has ever received since his inauguration.

Days after US Vice President Mike Pence's full-blown speech on China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited China. The highest-level diplomats from China and the US met in a cold atmosphere and delivered their courteous but bold stances. Taking a careful look at Pence's remarks, one will find that he has left room for easing Sino-US relations.

在彭斯副总统发表了全面指责中国的“檄文式”演说几天后,蓬佩奥国务卿8日访问中国。中美最高级别外交官进行了冷淡的会晤和直言不讳的立场表达,但双方同时保持了礼貌和克制,说话都留有余地,表达了继续合作的愿望。其实仔细看,彭斯的演说也没有把话说绝,给缓和中美关系预留了“门缝”。


It is believed the US does not want to confront China. Perhaps a few political elites would like to do so as it could help consolidate their interests, but the public may not want to follow suit. The costs of an overall confrontation between Beijing and Washington would be too much for the two societies to bear as both have been enjoying the benefits of globalization.

想必美国作为一个整体也不想与中国对抗,或许有少数政治精英希望那样,以巩固他们的既得利益,但美国社会未必希望跟着疯狂。中美全面对抗的代价太大了,大到足以让已经习惯享受全球化好处的中美两国社会都无法承受。


Washington eyes a complete victory in the latest round of conflicts with China so as to reaffirm the global pattern in which the US is sole superpower. Washington worries that China is attempting to replace the US as a new dominant power in the world.

华盛顿希望以近乎美方“完胜”,中方“投降”的方式结束这一轮冲突,从而一劳永逸地确定美国作为全球唯一超级力量的格局。他们很担心中方企图取代美国地位逐渐成为这个世界新的主导力量。


China will not surrender its economic sovereignty under any circumstances, because it will become a vassal of the US if it does. The aggressive offensives of the US will increasingly alert Chinese society.

中国当然不会出让自己国家的经济主权,那意味着中国将失去未来,成为美国的一个附庸。美国咄咄逼人的攻势也将前所未有地增加中国社会的警惕性,使我们对来自美方的任何动向都更加敏感。


So will China and the US fall into confrontation? It is hard to predict in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, it will not become the general dynamic of this bilateral relationship.

那么中美就将一步步随波逐流地滑向对抗吗?短时间内不好说,但从长期看,这绝不会成为中美关系的总态势。


Both China and the US would suffer the consequences. In China where it is easier to reach consensus across society, the trade war between China and the US is met with complaints. It is not hard to imagine how difficult it is to mobilize the whole of US society - in which two parties take turns to rule - to hold on to the confrontation.

因为这的确将是一个中美两伤的过程,是两国社会都不愿意看到的结局。中美贸易战在中国这种更容易统一认识的社会里尚遭到一些抱怨,可想而知在美国实行政党轮替的社会里,为长期主动发起中美对抗,开展全社会的动员是多么难以做到。 


Driven by globalization and their own interests, China and the US will come to the "third alternative," a term coined by US author Stephen Covey. Covey, who works on management theory, proposed the alternative as a conflict resolution.

无论中美愿不愿意,都将被全球化浪潮和两国的各自利益推向类似美国作家史蒂芬·柯维所指的“第3选择”。柯维是管理学大师,他提出用“第3选择”解决极端的两难困境实现双赢。


The US wants to be the only winner in its conflict with China. But history says that approach will be full of risks. The US may find it hard to win over China, as China has enough strength to resist US provocations and acquires the potential to endure hardships. Moreover, it owns strategic deterrence as a major nuclear power.

美国当然希望出现它的单赢局面,在世界范围内赢者通吃。无奈历史的经验告诉人们,追求单赢的代价往往很高,充满了风险。而中国有着一些美国谋求单赢不可逾越的指标,它们包括支持中国进行抵抗的现有实力,帮助中国坚持下去的巨大潜力,以及中国作为核大国的战略威慑力。


It is more unrealistic for China to seek an overwhelming victory over the US. The US economic quality, its leadership in global technology and its ability to mobilize its allies to confront China are far beyond China's reach.

中国要谋求压倒美国的单赢更加不现实。中国虽然在经济总量上有望超过美国,但是美国的经济质量,它对全球科技的引领力,还有它与其他国家结盟抗衡中国的能力,都将是很长时间里中方所不及的。


Seeking a third alternative will inevitably be the only option for China and the US. Currently many Americans might agree with their government's approach to China, but the premise is that this will not lead to a strategic clash. If Washington really calls on its people to work toward a dead end, most Americans will demand the president seek an alternative.

探索“第3选择”必将成为中美之间的唯一选择。今天的美国政府采用施压手段争取美方的更多利益,美方很多人或许认同,但前提是不把美国真的引向痛苦的对外战略对撞。如果华盛顿真的号召美国人民一起为了明天“决一死战”,走向一场可能彻底失控的全面对外冲突,绝大多数美国人一定会要求政府“换一种办法”。


China is more open to a third alternative. This is not because China is timid, but because China is sincere in its pursuit of a win-win or multi-win scenario and is dedicated to building a community of common destiny. It is hoped that the elites in Washington can carefully read The 3rd Alternative.

中国更容易接受“第3选择”,这不是因为我们怯懦,而是我们真诚提出双赢和多赢的主张,致力于构建人类命运共同体。希望华盛顿的精英们认真读一读美国人自己写的《第3选择》。 


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