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【双语社评】文在寅访朝成功易,劝说华盛顿难

2018-09-19 15:11     国际     来自:环球时报GlobalTimes
环球时报GlobalTimes
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Nauruan President Baron Waqa was tough toward China at the end of the Pacific Islands Forum earlier this week. He accused China of "bullying" other nations and even threatened to take it to the United Nations. Such a deliberate provocation against China has made headlines in Western media. This is perhaps the biggest limelight the president of a nation of just 11,000 people has ever received since his inauguration.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in arrived in North Korea Tuesday for his third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Moon is the third South Korean president to visit North Korea.

韩国总统文在寅星期二开始访问朝鲜,他成为访问朝鲜的第三位韩国总统,这也是他与朝鲜最高领导人金正恩的第三次见面。


Pyongyang greeted Moon with an official welcome ceremony and the inter-Korean summit seems to be moving along smoothly. Both sides share a strong will to comprehensively improve their relations. If there are no interfering external factors, there seems to be no problem for North and South Korea to establish and consolidate their new relations.

朝鲜以高规格礼遇迎接了文在寅,朝韩最高领导人的会晤看上去进行得也很顺利,半岛北南双方全面改善关系的愿望十分强烈,如果没有外部因素干扰,朝韩建立并巩固全新关系看来已不是什么问题。


But the reality is not ideal. Moon is regarded as a lobbyist for US President Donald Trump, and the major task of his visit is striving for more North Korean promises of denuclearization. In other words, Moon will spare no efforts to make Pyongyang and Washington resume their talks. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo canceled his visit to North Korea last month, bringing new uncertainty to the peninsula denuclearization process.

然而现实又很骨感,文在寅此行的最大任务被普遍看成是当特朗普总统的说客,争取朝方在去核问题上给出更多承诺。或者说,他要想尽办法促使美朝重新谈起来。上个月,美国国务卿蓬佩奥取消了对朝鲜的访问,半岛无核化进程出现新的不确定性。


After that, Pyongyang has shown a willingness and capability to prevent the situation worsening. Kim wrote a letter to President Trump. During the military parade to celebrate the 70th founding anniversary of North Korea on September 9, no intercontinental ballistic missile was displayed. This was highly praised by Trump, easing up a bit on US-North Korea tensions.

在那之后,朝方表现出避免局势恶化的愿望和能力,金正恩委员长给特朗普总统写了信,朝鲜本月初举行建国70周年庆典阅兵时,没有展示洲际弹道导弹,这受到特朗普总统的高度赞扬,美朝之间的氛围有了一点缓和。


But this cannot guarantee the peninsula peace process. Pyongyang has expressed its wish for denuclearization and announced a shift of focus to economic development, but it needs the denuclearization process to be safe. The US should give North Korea this sense of safety, taking a more positive attitude on issues such as signing a war-ending declaration. But within the US, many forces are constraining Trump.

这一切并不能保障半岛和平进程顺利走下去。朝鲜已经清晰表达了无核化的愿望,而且其国内已经宣布了将工作重心转向经济建设,但它需要去核程序的安全。美国需要给予朝鲜这样的安全感,在发表终战宣言等问题上采取更积极的态度,然而牵制特朗普总统这样做的美方力量很多,这导致了华盛顿在向前迈多大步子的问题上不断犹豫摇摆。


If the attitudes of North Korea and the US are variable, the US, as the stronger side, should show more consistency. But the main problem is Washington is doubtful in its interaction with Pyongyang, and the US uses threats as a bargaining chip whenever problems emerge.

如果说朝美双方的态度是个互动体系,都存在可能变数的话,美国作为更强大的一方,它应展现出更多定力,为双方态度的稳定作出更多贡献。但美方是抱着怀疑态度对待它与朝方互动体系的,一有问题它就祭出回到对抗原点的威胁,以此作为牵制朝方的王牌。这是当前问题的核心所在。


South Korea and the US are allies. South Korea depends on the US for security and the US also needs South Korea for its strong presence in East Asia. Moon should play a bigger role in stabilizing Trump's attitude and this is South Korea's unique key to a peaceful peninsula.

韩国与美国是同盟关系,它的安全靠着美国,但美国在东亚的强势存在也离不开韩国,文在寅应当对稳定特朗普总统的态度发挥更大作用,这其实是韩国手里针对半岛局势最独特的一把钥匙。


Although the ties between the two Koreas can break the deadlock, South Korea has no leverage over North Korea. However, Seoul has certain capital to influence or pressure Washington, although that is risky.

韩国并没有影响朝鲜的真正杠杆,朝韩的亲缘关系可以作为突破僵局的切入口,但它本身并不构成撬动力。而韩美关系则不一样,首尔有向华盛顿施加影响甚至压力的一定资本,尽管使用这些资本并不容易,存在某些风险。


North Korea-US negotiations are unpredictable. What's important is to rationalize the two sides' attitudes. The situation needs to be controlled when they don't trust each other.

朝美谈判今天顺利了,明天可能不顺利;今天和风细雨,明天就可能阴云密布。最重要的是要理顺双方打交道的基本态度和方式,尤其是当双方的互不信任在某个具体关节上发作时,这种局面要能够得到管控。


The peninsula situation made a big leap forward with the suspension of the US-South Korea joint military exercises. This suspension corresponded to North Korea suspending nuclear and missile test activities. It was hard-won progress. Today's situation was unimaginable a year ago. South Korea should contribute to keeping this situation from being broken.

半岛局势的一大进展是,美韩联合军演停下来了,对应了朝鲜停止核试验和导弹试射活动。这一进展的得来殊为不易,跟去年相比,今天的半岛局势几乎是难以置信的。韩国要为保持当前形势不被打破作出自己的应有贡献。


It is believed Moon's North Korea visit will be a success, but this success needs to be followed by Washington adjusting its attitude to achieve a more lasting meaning. History has proved that Pyongyang-Washington ties have a decisive effect on inter-Korean relations. In this sense, in the final analysis, Seoul needs to focus on lobbying Washington.

我们相信,文在寅访朝会取得成功,然而这种成功必须要转化成接下来促华盛顿修正态度的新成果,才能形成长久的意义。历史证明,朝韩关系能部分影响朝美关系,但朝美关系对朝韩关系的影响往往是决定性的。所以说,首尔的游说重点最终要放在华盛顿。



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