【双语社评】美制裁伊朗,贸易战之外燃起新火堆-牛人微信
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【双语社评】美制裁伊朗,贸易战之外燃起新火堆

2018-08-08 12:42     娱乐     来自:环球时报GlobalTimes
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The US reimposed sanctions against Iran Tuesday, putting an end to the era of solving problems through peaceful negotiations in the Middle East. Prior to this, the US moved its Israel embassy to Jerusalem, shutting the door on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. Now it has basically cut off negotiations with Iran and attempted to prevent the European Union, China and Russia from cooperating with Iran. 

美国7日正式重启了对伊朗的制裁,这大体相当于为中东地区通过和平谈判解决问题的时代画上了句号。在这之前,美国将驻以色列大使馆迁至耶路撒冷,关闭了巴以谈判的大门。现在美国实际关上了自己与伊朗的谈判大门,并且要阻止欧盟和中俄与伊朗开展合作。


The Middle East has witnessed complex internal contradictions, including confrontation between Palestine and Israel, conflicts between Arabs and Persians and clashes between Sunnis and Shiites. Since the signing of the Camp David Accords in the late 1970s, the US has been promoting negotiations among relevant parties in the Middle East. 

中东有极其复杂的内在矛盾,至少包括巴以(阿以)对立、阿拉伯人与波斯人矛盾,以及逊尼派穆斯林与什叶派穆斯林的冲突等几条主线。从上世纪70年代末促成戴维营协议以来,美国曾不断尝试推动中东各方的谈判。


It's not easy to establish long-lasting peace in the region given the intertwined problems. But it's fair to say those negotiations played a role in stabilizing the situation and reducing crises. 

由于中东地区的问题盘根错节,在该地区建立持久和平殊为不易,但是应当说,那些谈判对稳定中东局势,减少暴力冲突还是起了作用的。


There have been no large clashes between Palestine and Israel for a long time and the intensity of Sunni-Shiite conflicts has also fallen. Despite twists and turns, the trajectory of peace and development is pretty clear.  

巴以之间以及阿以之间很久没有大规模冲突了,逊尼派与什叶派冲突的烈度也得到一定程度的控制,和平与发展的线索虽然曲折、甚至有时成为断续线,但它的轨迹和走向还是相当明晰的。


Since Donald Trump took office, the US drastically changed its Middle East policy, transforming from negotiations to supporting its allies in confronting their competitors in the region. 

特朗普总统上台后,美国断然改变了原有中东政策,由推动各方谈判改为明确站队,支持自己的盟友与它们地区内的竞争者对抗。 


Doing so is easier for getting results than promoting negotiations. For example, the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem won the gratitude of Israel.  

说实话,这样做更加简单,易操作,比推动谈判更容易见效。比如把驻以色列大使馆迁到耶路撒冷,旗帜鲜明,说办就办了。 


Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal can bring Washington even more benefits. It not only has dealt a heavy blow to Iran, but also won support, public or covert, from Israel, and Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia.  Meanwhile, European companies and new emerging Asian countries suffered from US sanctions against Iran as they had quickly cooperated with Iran after signing the Iran deal. This constitutes a form of indirect benefit for the US. 

撤出伊朗核协议,华盛顿更可以一石多鸟。它打击了美国的宿敌伊朗,博得了沙特等逊尼派国家公开或暗中叫好,以色列更是支持。与此同时,美国制裁伊朗过程还可以给欧洲公司和亚洲新兴国家带来困难,它们在伊核协议签署后都迅速开展了与伊朗的合作,如今它们受损,成为美国间接受益的一种方式。


One thing certain is that the situation in the Middle East will turn messier because of US sanctions on Iran. The US has found it cost-effective to pursue short-term interests with few resources, but it will pay the price eventually. 

可以肯定,中东将因特朗普政府对伊制裁政策而变得更乱。美国使用更少的资源博取更多的短期利益,这是种省事的做法。然而美国从长期看要为此埋单,也是确定无疑的。


The Middle East has become a main source of refugees and terrorism, posing major threats to Western interests. The more hatred and confrontation arising in the Middle East, the more refugees and terrorism. 

中东已经成为难民和恐怖主义的主要输出地,这些元素对西方利益构成重大威胁。中东的仇恨越多,对抗越多,这些元素出现得也将更多。


It's easy for the US to stir confrontation, but hard to control the consequences. The national interest of the superpower will likely be harmed by a more chaotic Middle East. 

美国在中东触发对抗很容易,但是它控制事态发展的方向和轨迹却很难。美国作为超级大国,其国家利益从更混乱的中东局势中受损将是高概率事件。 


The reimposition of US sanctions has put countries that invested in Iran, including China, in an uncomfortable position. Although the EU announced it would continue to implement the Iran nuclear deal, many European firms have started withdrawing from the country to avoid US sanctions.

美方重启对伊朗制裁,给包括中国在内有在伊朗投资的国家都出了难题。尽管欧盟表示将继续坚持伊朗核协议,但是很多欧洲国家的公司已经开始撤离伊朗,以避免招来美国的制裁。


China needs to collaborate with the EU and Russia. While opposing unilateral US sanctions, Beijing cannot confront Washington over Iran and meanwhile it needs to maintain friendly ties with Tehran. Striking a balance is a diplomatic challenge for China. 

中国需要与欧盟和俄罗斯协调行动,我们显然在这当中扛不起抵制美国做法的大旗。中国反对美国单边制裁,同时又不能轻易围绕伊朗问题同华盛顿对抗,我们还需保持同伊朗的友好关系,中国的外交挑战在于如何在这几项利益之间保持平衡。


How long Iran can withstand sanctions is a decisive factor. Trump vowed to hit firms doing business with Iran. How far an isolated Iran can be pushed is a barometer of international politics. In this century, there are more signs of confrontation in the world.

伊朗到底能顶多久,是影响事态发展的最重要动向之一。特朗普誓言要绝杀所有与伊朗做生意的公司,美国能把伊朗孤立到什么程度,也是国际政治重要的晴雨表。21世纪飘出越来越多对立的味道,人类熟悉的进程出现剧烈颠簸。


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